tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1835455773953043846.post8900532039140682532..comments2024-01-12T18:59:05.080+00:00Comments on Defence With A "C": The Influence of InfluenceUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1835455773953043846.post-31171799422349522792012-07-27T05:34:50.534+01:002012-07-27T05:34:50.534+01:00Dangerous Dave,
Don't forget that Africa is s...Dangerous Dave,<br /><br />Don't forget that Africa is shooting up in some places from an economic point of view. BAE Hawk etc is the kind of thing many countries are going to be aiming for as they make the switch to Western technology. <br /><br />Regarding the Hawk 200, Oman has placed orders as well and apparently Saudi Arabia is musing it over as a trainer/light supplement. It has air to ground functions as well as air to air so it's viable for that market.<br /><br />BAE Land Systems would pay its profits back in the UK to shareholders at home, so money still comes back to the UK.Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18182426936194426623noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1835455773953043846.post-19158451289949212412012-07-26T14:33:44.203+01:002012-07-26T14:33:44.203+01:00Hmmm... BAE Hawk. iirc the series 200 only ever ...Hmmm... BAE Hawk. iirc the series 200 only ever found a customers in Malaysia (18) and Indonesia (32), compare that with a total production run of 900, mostly of the trainer version which has much more limited light-fighter capability (no radar, no IRST, only 3 hardpoints etc.). If the Hawk had been designed with light CAS duties in mind from the outset (light the Alpha-Jet appui, or Pilatus PC-9), then the specialised versions may have had a bigger market. In fact, the PC-9 has been successful in Africa mainly because it is a step-down in capability to the Hawk trainer (turboprop instead of turbofan, field maintainable instead of hangar maintainable), but still a step up from what adversaries are likely to have available (insurgents with AK-47's). <br /><br />As for the RG-35, the reason *that* is successful is due to manufacture by Land Systems OMC in South Africa, paying local wages and taxes and therefore keeping purchase costs down. It is unlikely that any of the tax take from BAE Land Systems SA, Land Systems OMC or purchase of any RG-35's will see it's way to the UK, I'm afraid.<br /><br />Lastly, as for the British corvettes and escorts in use in the M.E. I can say only one thing. 'Vosper-Thorneycroft, where art thou now?'<br /><br />To sell to the Emerging Economies, British companies will need to think 1 or 2 rungs down on the complexity ladder and, importantly, *Privately fund the prototypes* - these countries need to see what they are buying. It'll never happen, as HMG will take an interest and start making noises about purchasing Gucci versions of the kit for use in "stability operations", so BAE Systems at. al. will start chasing the British Defence Pound again. :-(Dangerous Davenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1835455773953043846.post-59342011865500940152012-07-26T03:56:04.795+01:002012-07-26T03:56:04.795+01:00@ Dangerous Dave,
British defence companies make ...@ Dangerous Dave,<br /><br />British defence companies make goods that are more appropriate to an African market, as well as ones that are high tech/high cost for our domestic market.<br /><br />The BAE Hawk is one example, coming in both training examples and a single seat fighter version that already has had some export success. Then you have things like the RG35 which is a protected troop vehicle from their South African division and is designed from the outset for the African operating environment. Then you have UK ship builders that have built all manner of small ships, patrol craft and corvette style vessels for the defense of EEZ and territorial waters.<br /><br />And I have no idea who Steve Wright is. But he seems to have an impressive tache.Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18182426936194426623noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1835455773953043846.post-72190882060722021832012-07-25T13:36:43.598+01:002012-07-25T13:36:43.598+01:00Ooh, forgot to add, great first post - nice blog s...Ooh, forgot to add, great first post - nice blog so far. In a Radio-2-Steve-Wright-in-the-afternoon-stylee. :-)Dangerous Davenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1835455773953043846.post-11370242670562918762012-07-25T13:29:02.184+01:002012-07-25T13:29:02.184+01:00@Chris B. "British companies are capable of p...@Chris B. "British companies are capable of producing products up and down the spectrum of the needs of most African nations and we’re already friendly with many of them."<br /><br />But how many will? Most defence companies are trying to catch some of the MoD's "drunken tart" like spendthrift attitude to project spending. They are unable or unwilling to be weaned off that teat. Also, export customers like to see hardware (even in rolling/sailing/fliying shell form) before parting with cash - no African / M.E. country would part with cash for R&D on the end result of a load of powerpoint slides. Lastly, our products are very definitely "high end" wrt sensors and armaments, arguably what these emerging countries need are basic units that UK industry may not be cost effective in producing . . . <br /><br />@Anonymous 24/07-09:35 "The French still maintain their informal empire there, and the other bits are already well covered by the Chinese who offer real investment in the form of roads and railways."<br /><br />If the French still have their "empire club" so do we. A lot of countries that we would like to influence in Africa are members of the Commonwealth, with the will and funding that could be a useful gateway . . .<br /><br />As a general point, I've felt that the UK should be putting more of it's influence on to the Commonwealth, there's a lot of residual good will and much mentoring to be done - and where mentoring leads, contracts usually follow as the goverment of the mentored states buys the equipment its people have been trained on - that's why US satellite states buy American and ex-soviet ones buy Russian.Dangerous Davenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1835455773953043846.post-74049655288534644712012-07-25T07:31:26.571+01:002012-07-25T07:31:26.571+01:00Anon,
Never too late in Africa. You have a nation...Anon,<br /><br />Never too late in Africa. You have a nation that is still developing in many, many ways, and going forward there will be bountiful opportunities for business. France has a good reputation there, as does China, but so do we after Sierra Leone. <br /><br />The hinge on which everything else turns is Government committment. How driven is the Government to help investment? This is where Embassies come in for example. Are the embassy staff hosting regular meetings with trade ministers in those countries? Are they introducing British businessmen to the right people? <br /><br />This is where the Foreign Office needs to flex its diplomatic muscles and skills that have been built over the years. DfID? Where better to spend international aid money than in a future market, as opposed to trying to convince India and Brazil that they really, really need our assistance.<br /><br />We live in interesting times and with a down turn in the domestic economy, opportunities abound abroad. The will to act though, is vital.<br /><br />I've also added a note to my "posts to do" list. It simply reads "Why Africa?".Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18182426936194426623noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1835455773953043846.post-53094732343149115322012-07-24T09:35:14.730+01:002012-07-24T09:35:14.730+01:00A lot of common sense Chris - but don't you th...A lot of common sense Chris - but don't you think its too late even for Africa?<br /><br />The French still maintain their informal empire there, and the other bits are already well covered by the Chinese who offer real investment in the form of roads and railways.<br /><br />The conclusion you're led to is that only as part of Europe might we have any influence on the world stage - but that is dependent on 27 nations pulling is same directionAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1835455773953043846.post-86867374689940543572012-07-24T00:18:43.727+01:002012-07-24T00:18:43.727+01:00Cheers to everyone in general for stopping by and ...Cheers to everyone in general for stopping by and leaving a comment. I'm pleased with this first response at least. Now specifically,<br /><br />@ Jedibftrx,<br />I'm just not convinced those sea lanes to the Far East are under any serious threat, or that they hold much more value than just commercial pieces of tat, much of which isn't life threatening to the UK economy and could be produced elsewhere.<br /><br />@ Simon,<br />One of the points I was trying to get at was the ability of large countries to influence small ones, while having a more limited effect on similar sized countries. You could influence Papua New Guinea if you wanted to, but to what end?<br /><br />@ Dom S,<br />Yes, I think Freidman is right about US desires going forward to suppress regional powers and prevent anyone achieving any kind of regional hegemony that would match their own. America vs almost any country in the world, politically, economically, militarily is a no brainer. They know that if they can keep countries like Iran from establishing a wide power base over a geographic region then they can prevent that power from turning people and resources against American interests, be they military, political or economic.<br /><br />@ TrT,<br />First of all, I can only apologise that your girlfriend caught sight of that advert about the rings. It's a shame you didn't click on it... ;)<br /><br />The office workers analogy was more just about demonstrating that power and influence are relative to those around you, as opposed to suggesting that Britain was any one of those.<br /><br />As for a 32 Astute Navy... it would be unaffordable. As would much of that fantasy fleets stuff.Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18182426936194426623noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1835455773953043846.post-40669518757718486232012-07-23T18:35:11.717+01:002012-07-23T18:35:11.717+01:00Excellent Post, however.....
Regarding your cowor...Excellent Post, however.....<br /><br />Regarding your coworkers metaphor.<br />The UK is not, but I believe the UK could and should be, not your boss, not your coworker, not your owner, but the rioting that can store your office, smash all your computers, steal all your laptops and set the building on fire before going home.<br />Barbarians at the gates are historically very effective influencers.<br /><br /><br />Regarding South East Asia.<br />True, Malaysia wouldnt call us currently, because currently, we cant do piss all.<br /><br />If we followed Fantasy Fleets plan<br />http://fantasyfleet.blogspot.co.uk/2010/10/towards-maritime-doctrine-super-power.html<br />And had a 32 Astute Navy, would Malaysia give us a ring?<br /><br />Or the SRPD on TD<br />http://www.thinkdefence.co.uk/2011/11/the-strategic-raiding-pocket-division/<br />Which assuming the T47 is basicaly my cruise missile cruiser, could fire over 2000 cruise missiles on day one.<br /><br />Do we have influence now?<br /><br />At the end of the day, what does the UK want "influence" for?<br /><br />Lets be honest here, "influence" (to my mind) is another way of saying, we want knives held firmly against the jugular, Achilles, of everyone who could be a threat to us, BRICS, I'm looking at you.<br /><br />If we want Chile to resist Brazilian pressure to cease providing a spare landing strip when Mount P is closed, we better be ready willing and able to do serious damage to Brazil if it bombs Chile over the matter.<br /><br />As for trade.<br />You should find out how much grain the Soviet Union bought from the United StatesTrThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07316335177828136131noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1835455773953043846.post-36014288468726530342012-07-23T18:20:56.208+01:002012-07-23T18:20:56.208+01:00Good luck with the new site Chris. Off to a good s...Good luck with the new site Chris. Off to a good start with your first post.<br /><br />From WiseApe.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1835455773953043846.post-85603796068399197012012-07-23T11:27:24.600+01:002012-07-23T11:27:24.600+01:00A great and readable post Chris.
Can I make a sma...A great and readable post Chris.<br /><br />Can I make a small suggestion in the spirit of being helpful? Could you please improve the font size and contrast against the background. I will confess to using a dreadful work provided browser, but the page is quite hard to read. The design looks nice, but it just needs to be a little more visually practical.Machiavellian Mandarinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00634289066141168860noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1835455773953043846.post-31571493825132809992012-07-23T09:46:39.193+01:002012-07-23T09:46:39.193+01:00Great first post.
In my opinion our areas of '...Great first post.<br /><br />In my opinion our areas of 'influence' must be ruthlessly focused on areas where we can trade to generate mutual prosperity and secure access to resources. Sounds like a no-brainer, but this will diverge in many cases from US areas of interest (as well as economic interests the US will aim to preserve its hegemony - if you subscribe to George Friedman's perspectives this will involve careful management of areas around the world to suppress the emergence of dominant regional superpowers).DomSnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1835455773953043846.post-78669012645820551922012-07-23T09:32:15.448+01:002012-07-23T09:32:15.448+01:00Great post Chris,
Still think that some of the ea...Great post Chris,<br /><br />Still think that some of the easier places to "influence" lie around the Indian Ocean. There must be some kind of trade-off between distance and "influencability" - i.e. we're not likey to influence France on many UK-beneficial aspects, but may find Papua NG more accomodating ;-)<br /><br />Yours,<br /><br /><br />SimonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1835455773953043846.post-71498919815553383072012-07-23T08:27:06.279+01:002012-07-23T08:27:06.279+01:00What a cracker ChrisWhat a cracker ChrisThink Defencehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14674093099627997373noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1835455773953043846.post-70405018645584812022012-07-23T08:20:30.567+01:002012-07-23T08:20:30.567+01:00Excellent first post Chris, I look forward to many...Excellent first post Chris, I look forward to many more.<br /><br />Particularly agree about the proper focus being 'our' region, i.e. Africa and the ME - as areas that we can both influence and will see direct benefit from doing so.<br /><br />"If we want to use the military as a tool for trying to influence people to our advantage then we should be focusing on countries nearer to home, countries that we actually can influence, not ambitiously reaching out to the Far East where our impact and influence is in reality quite limited."<br /><br />Yes indeed, however I am still a fan of the Lindley-French term Regional+ where we continue to pursue extra-regional interests where they are of particular importance, such as SLOC's via the FPDA and bilateral ties in the ME.jedibeeftrixhttp://jedibeeftrix.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1835455773953043846.post-85705574738091295232012-07-22T22:46:18.556+01:002012-07-22T22:46:18.556+01:00An excellent first post! Now I have another defenc...An excellent first post! Now I have another defence blog I must follow...Swimming Trunksnoreply@blogger.com