tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1835455773953043846.post3258724181853942451..comments2024-01-12T18:59:05.080+00:00Comments on Defence With A "C": The death of Qasem Soleimani and Twitter's response to itUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1835455773953043846.post-89654442132620306492020-01-09T14:41:50.309+00:002020-01-09T14:41:50.309+00:00...just to add to the ill-informed chatter, it has......just to add to the ill-informed chatter, it has always stuck me that Iran's "success" with respect to asymmetric warfare rather hinges on them confronting the West, rather than anyone else...and depending on our response being "restrained" and "proportional". Which it pretty much always has been, because they are irritating affront to our interests and values, as opposed to an existential threat to our way of life (at least at present). In consequence, our leaders have been constrained by public opinion (which is uneasy about military casualties, and horrified by cvilian ones)...and equally by elite opinion, appalled by anything that looks anything like "Western Imperialism".<br /><br />I note in particular that they deal with Russia and China quite differently, and in my view not only because their interests more often align...also because they know full well that both those lesser powers would act with utter ruthlessness if their state interests were threatened...and are not much worried by "collateral damage" to innocent civilians, their own or others...because their publics would not expect the Czar or the Celestial Emperor to prostrate themselves to spare some hapless subject of theirs discomfort, imprisonment or death. But would require revenge to be taken in such a way that the Islamic Courts would think twice before banging-up some hapless Russian on trumped up charges...and the Revolutionary Guards would hold their hand in the face of a surly group of Han Chinese.<br /><br />Iran behaves like an enraged seven-year-old who knows they can hit Daddy as hard as they can, and will be punished perhaps even with a smacked bottom...but they won't be beaten senseless and bloody. The same child will also be cautious with the tough teenagers next door, who might whack them good and hard...and could just have found out that mummy has a new boyfriend whose idea of punishment involves a belt-buckle and a few nights in hospital.<br /><br />Hard to tell at this stage, but they MIGHT have stuck to a series of casualty-free missile strikes...because what comes next may be a lot worse than an immolated "Martyr"...like the whole Al-Quds C&C Network obliterated...a coastal landing to reduce Iran's fast-attack navy to twisted wreckage located in smoking rubble with a top-dressing of dead sailors...or waking up to Fatimah's Shrine looking like a skating rink made of black volcanic glass...<br /><br />I'd imagine they are thinking long and hard about what comes next...so to that extent, the PotUS seems to have come up with his own variant on assymetric warfare...GNB Gloomy Northern Boyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12232768532707968591noreply@blogger.com